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Aug
28
UFC 88 Preview and Predictions
August 28, 2008 |
Chuck Liddell over Rashad Evans
Evans is a deceptive fighter. He is a guy who has a stunning record for as new as he is to the sport, and if we were looking at records in a vacuum, then this might be a classic matchup. The problem with this matchup comes twofold. Firstly, Liddell is one of the best ever, age be damned, and secondly, Evans isn’t a finisher, he’s a wrestler who often hangs on and does just enough to win a decision. Of Evans’ 12 fights he has had one draw (Ortiz, 2007) and six decision victories. Of those six, three could have gone the other way very easily (Bisping, Hoger, Imes). We all know what “The Iceman” is capable of and who he is. This shouldn’t go past the second round, but Evans might stay true to his past and find a way to stay in it until the end.
Rich Franklin over Matt Hamill
It is utterly stunning how a 23-3 fighter in the prime of his career is so readily written off by so-called “experts.” Franklin has gone 3-2 over the last two years, and the only two losses have come against the best in the world, Anderson Silva. The other loss came back in 03 against All-World Lyoto Machida. So, when the numbers are crunched, the combined record of the two guys who have beaten “Ace” over the past eight and a half years are a combined 35-4. Can a guy get some love, please? Many are hyping this fight saying that Hamill’s wrestling will give Franklin fits, but Franklin, a puncher who calls himself a wrestler, has done fine against great wrestlers. He won’t win on the ground, but he won’t lose there against Hamill either. While Hamill’s wrestling is superb, his striking and striking defense is not. “The Hammer” often leaves his chin open and leads with his face. Ace will punch the kid’s lights out in two.
Yoshiyuki Yoshida over Karo Parisyan
This is going to be a fight that will determine where “The Heat” goes from here. Everyone knows that Dana White doesn’t keep fighters around long after they lose a couple in a row, especially if they’re not “golden boys.” If Parisyan loses against Yoshida then he’ll get one more chance to redeem himself, but that’s it. In Karo’s defense, he’s lost five fights, but he’s lost to Sean Sherk twice, and GSP, Diego Sanchez, and Thiago Alves once. Those guys have a combined record of 83-10-1, so it’s not like “Heat” is losing to Wal-Mart stock boys. Like Rashad Evans, though, “Heat” has a tendency to fall into the rut of not finishing fights. 10 of his last 11 wins have gone to decision, while “Zenko” Yoshida has only had one of his 10 wins go to the judges. This trend continues as Yoshida cools off “The Heat” by TKO in the third round.
Dan Henderson over Rousimar Palhares
It’s true that “Toquinho” Palhares is on a tear, but Henderson is one of the best ever in this sport. Palhares is going to try to take this to the ground so he can attempt a submission or two, but he gets a lesson on paying dues in the cage. Ultimately he will be better for having Henderson kick his tail all over the octagon, but he’s going to taste Dan Henderson for a while after this fight. Henderson is going to catch “Toquinho” with more than one uppercut because of lazy take down attempts, and ultimately wins by TKO in two.
Nate Marquardt over Martin Kampmann
While it’s true that Marquardt has lost two of his last three and Kampmann is blowing through people, Marquardt has been around the block too many times to give up a decision to the 5-year MMA vet, Kampmann. Marquardt is just under three years older than Kampmann, but he has an astounding 22 more fights than Kampmann. This experience will play a role as Marquardt confuses “The Hitman” and chokes him out in the first round.
Thiago Tavares over Kurt Pellegrino
Tavares is an intriguing fighter, but he’s lost two of his last three against relative newcomers who both have less than five years in the sport. Pellegrino is a vet who knows his way around the octagon, but he hasn’t had a quality win in a while, not to mention he’s on the UFC bubble. A loss here might send him packing. In the end, Tavares does send Pellegrino packing by submitting him.
Matt Brown over Dong Hyun Kim
On paper this seems like a decent fight, however Kim has knocked out some real soup cans, whereas Brown has at least faced some real-life competition. Brown doesn’t have the shiney record like the “Stun Gun,” and he’s taken a few lumps lately, but not many fighters have the killer instincts of Brown either. Brown wins by TKO.
Ryo Chonan over Roan Carneiro
This is the second time these fighters will have met. Back in 05 Chonan opened up a huge cut over the eye of Carneiro and just kept pounding it until it looked like hamburger. Ultimately the contest was stopped because of the cut. Chonan has lost a few times, but he’s lost to a pretty decent cast of fighters such as Karo Parisyan and Paulo Filho. Granted, he’s also lost to “The New York Big Mouth” Phil Baroni, but even the greats have an off day. Expect Chonan to pummel Carneiro for a not-so-close victory.
Jason MacDonald over Jason Lambert
After losing three of his last four fights, it’s time for the 23-8 Lambert to figure out where the leak is, and fix it. That task might be hard against “The Athlete” Jason MacDonald who is only 3-3 over his last six. MacDonald, many might recall, just competed in early August, and lost a close one against Demian Maia in a match that was a Jiu Jitsu clinic. That match saw both fighters implement and escape tons of submissions and mounts. Lambert is nowhere near the Jiu Jitsu master that Maia is, and MacDonald has a win-loss-win-loss pattern that holds pat over the last six fights. Who are we to go against a trend? MacDonald wins by submission.
Tim Boetsch over Michael Patt
This will be interesting. Boetsch is a brawler/wrestler who wants to knock people out (figure that) and Patt is a roller who has won 9 of 12 by submission. Boetsch has never been tapped out, and most of the guys Patt has fought recently are .500 or below. Patt hasn’t really experienced tough competition. The magic eight ball says Boestsch wins by TKO.
